Debate: Will the Coronavirus outbreak affect the reefing community

[505nano]

I am from New Mexico, and we just got our 3 first confirmed cases this morning. I have pretty bad asthma and this virus is a little concerning to me. I usually dont care about being sick, but this one is a little more serious. We have a fish swap this weekend in Alb, which I think I am skipping out on this time around. Thankfully, I work in I.T. and can work from home with no problems. 

[banasophia]

I thought this was an interesting article some might like to read: 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/10/coronavirus-what-matters-isnt-what-you-can-see-what-you-cant/

 

And a graphic explaining that they are trying to delay the spread, or “flatten the curve”:

https://flowingdata.com/2020/03/09/flatten-the-coronavirus-curve/

[William]

Looks like all travel to Europe is suspended, and the NBA season is canceled 

[505nano]

5 minutes ago, William said:

Looks like all travel to Europe is suspended, and the NBA season is canceled 

I'm happy it's being taken seriously at least. It looks like March madness will only be televised with no fans on the arena. Craziness. 

[Sancho]

Am I missing something here? Doesn’t the flu kill more people? I don’t ever recall this amount of hysteria over any other bug....hell they are reporting people to HR if you show up to work with a sniffle...🤔 

[Picogoby]

20 minutes ago, Sancho said:

Am I missing something here? Doesn’t the flu kill more people? I don’t ever recall this amount of hysteria over any other bug....hell they are reporting people to HR if you show up to work with a sniffle...🤔 

At the moment yes the flu does, however if COVID-19 continues to spread as it has over the past 2 weeks, it could claim up to 35X the amount killed be flu within the next 100 days!

[banasophia]

22 minutes ago, Sancho said:

Am I missing something here? Doesn’t the flu kill more people? I don’t ever recall this amount of hysteria over any other bug....hell they are reporting people to HR if you show up to work with a sniffle...🤔 

See links I posted above... they address those exact questions. 🤗

[William]

27 minutes ago, Sancho said:

Am I missing something here? Doesn’t the flu kill more people? I don’t ever recall this amount of hysteria over any other bug....hell they are reporting people to HR if you show up to work with a sniffle...🤔 

There is no vaccine for covid-19, there is a flu vaccine. Since Covid-19 is a new virus, nobody has immunity to it, unlike the flu where previous flu infection provides some degree of immunity. Covid-19 is also more easily transmissible than seasonal flu. Covid-19 has a mortality rate around 2-3% whereas flu has a mortality rate of 0.1% (so covid 19 is 20 times more deadly). 

[banasophia]

7 minutes ago, William said:

There is no vaccine for covid-19, there is a flu vaccine. Since Covid-19 is a new virus, nobody has immunity to it, unlike the flu where previous flu infection provides some degree of immunity. Covid-19 is also more easily transmissible than seasonal flu. Covid-19 has a mortality rate around 2-3% whereas flu has a mortality rate of 0.1% (so covid 19 is 20 times more deadly). 

How ya doin? Still waiting on the results? 

[RedCrow]

17 minutes ago, Picogoby said:

At the moment yes the flu does, however if COVID-19 continues to spread as it has over the past 2 weeks, it could claim up to 35X the amount killed be flu within the next 100 days!

US deaths from influenza since October 1st: 20,000-52,000 (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burger den/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm)

US deaths from COVID-19: 37

 

Severely doubting that number is going to jump from three dozen to over a million in the next three months.  

[RedCrow]

2 hours ago, William said:

Looks like all travel to Europe is suspended

My dad and I have been talking about going to Iceland for years. This year we finally decided to go. We booked for April 🤦‍♂️

[Sancho]

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
 

[Picogoby]

6 minutes ago, RedCrow said:

US deaths from influenza since October 1st: 20,000-52,000 (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burger den/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm)

US deaths from COVID-19: 37

 

Severely doubting that number is going to jump from three dozen to over a million in the next three months.  

I know for you the US is the only place on the planet, but there is a world out there and the information you link to is estimates and not facts. Typical US media! ( yes I do think even your government based info is totally biased). It’s social brainwashing....... many in the US also believe there is no such thing as global warming!

[Picogoby]

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases:

"Things will get worse." How much worse it will get depends on 2 things, he said: 

1. containing the influx of infected people coming from other countries

2. containing local outbreaks within the U.S. 

When pressed by lawmakers for an estimate of eventual fatalities in the U.S., Fauci said it will be “totally dependent upon how we respond to it.”

“I can’t give you a number,” he said. “I can’t give you a realistic number until we put into the factor of how we respond. If we’re complacent and don’t do really aggressive containment and mitigation, the number could go way up and be involved in many, many millions.”
 

And here You go if you want to hear it from an American!

 

 

[William]

28 minutes ago, banasophia said:

How ya doin? Still waiting on the results? 

I came back negative, I just have pneumonia 

 

[Sancho]

24 minutes ago, William said:

There is no vaccine for covid-19, there is a flu vaccine. Since Covid-19 is a new virus, nobody has immunity to it, unlike the flu where previous flu infection provides some degree of immunity. Covid-19 is also more easily transmissible than seasonal flu. Covid-19 has a mortality rate around 2-3% whereas flu has a mortality rate of 0.1% (so covid 19 is 20 times more deadly). 

There is no 100% effective flu vaccine either. Coronavirus is nothing new...the numbers at this point seem to have a high mortality rate however I’m skeptical because those numbers are based on confirmed cases. Symptoms for most are no worse than the common cold, I like many people won’t go to the doctor for a common cold. My uneducated guess is that there are many many unreported cases that passed in a few days. Those cases are not reported and therefore I don’t believe this has a 3% mortality rate...hell I could be wrong though and the cold I’ve been dealing with for the last couple weeks may take me out tonight 🤷‍♂️ I just really don’t understand the hysteria 

[Sancho]

24 minutes ago, Picogoby said:

I know for you the US is the only place on the planet, but there is a world out there and the information you link to is estimates and not facts. Typical US media! ( yes I do think even your government based info is totally biased). It’s social brainwashing....... many in the US also believe there is no such thing as global warming!

Well I just got an update from work...it’s banning all travel with the exception of traveling to the UK...wondering if there’s a conspiracy at foot to infect the Brits 🤗

[William]

23 minutes ago, Sancho said:

There is no 100% effective flu vaccine either. Coronavirus is nothing new...the numbers at this point seem to have a high mortality rate however I’m skeptical because those numbers are based on confirmed cases. Symptoms for most are no worse than the common cold, I like many people won’t go to the doctor for a common cold. My uneducated guess is that there are many many unreported cases that passed in a few days. Those cases are not reported and therefore I don’t believe this has a 3% mortality rate...hell I could be wrong though and the cold I’ve been dealing with for the last couple weeks may take me out tonight 🤷‍♂️ I just really don’t understand the hysteria 

Correct, but the flu vaccine provides some coverage and people most at risk for flu related morbidity/mortality are the ones that  should always get vaccinated for flu.  And yes the family of viruses known as coronaviruses are not new (4 cause the common cold, and

both MERS and SARS cause severe respiratory illness), this strain of coronavirus is new and we therefore have no innate defense against it. If you look at the mortality chart I posted, you

can see that for people 50 and below the mortality rate is similar to flu, so for most people the disease will present as a bad cold or flu (it’s more like a flu as 89% of those Infected report fever). But for people over 50 or with underlying health conditions, it is a completely different story. If you look at what is going on in Italy right now, their entire healthcare system is on the verge of collapse, and they have more doctors, ICU beds, and ventilators per capita than we do. 
 

it is likely going to get bad. I am an Anesthesiologist, so will likely be dealing with a lot of these super sick patients. (When i recover from the pneumonia I currently have)...

[RedCrow]

46 minutes ago, Picogoby said:

I know for you the US is the only place on the planet, but there is a world out there and the information you link to is estimates and not facts. Typical US media! ( yes I do think even your government based info is totally biased). It’s social brainwashing....... many in the US also believe there is no such thing as global warming!

Oh boy, someone’s offended that things are US centric on a US based forum...

 

Global influenza annual deaths: 290,000-650,000. (https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(seasonal))

Global COVID-19 deaths: 4,291 (https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---11-march-2020)

 

I do not want to fight about this, and I will not tolerate personal insults, so I will no longer be discussing with you. Have a pleasant evening. (Or morning, or afternoon. Sorry, I’m only capable of thinking about the USA!)

[Clown79]

31 minutes ago, William said:

I came back negative, I just have pneumonia 

 

Glad you don't have covid but pneumonia is still not fun. Take care of yourself and hope you get better soon.

[Picogoby]

20 minutes ago, Sancho said:

Well I just got an update from work...it’s banning all travel with the exception of traveling to the UK...wondering if there’s a conspiracy at foot to infect the Brits 🤗

We already have it!

[Picogoby]

41 minutes ago, Sancho said:

There is no 100% effective flu vaccine either. Coronavirus is nothing new...the numbers at this point seem to have a high mortality rate however I’m skeptical because those numbers are based on confirmed cases. Symptoms for most are no worse than the common cold, I like many people won’t go to the doctor for a common cold. My uneducated guess is that there are many many unreported cases that passed in a few days. Those cases are not reported and therefore I don’t believe this has a 3% mortality rate...hell I could be wrong though and the cold I’ve been dealing with for the last couple weeks may take me out tonight 🤷‍♂️ I just really don’t understand the hysteria 

Totally agree with the hysteria! Accept, understand and take tiny basic measures to mitigate!

[Tamberav]

53 minutes ago, Sancho said:

There is no 100% effective flu vaccine either. Coronavirus is nothing new...the numbers at this point seem to have a high mortality rate however I’m skeptical because those numbers are based on confirmed cases. Symptoms for most are no worse than the common cold, I like many people won’t go to the doctor for a common cold. My uneducated guess is that there are many many unreported cases that passed in a few days. Those cases are not reported and therefore I don’t believe this has a 3% mortality rate...hell I could be wrong though and the cold I’ve been dealing with for the last couple weeks may take me out tonight 🤷‍♂️ I just really don’t understand the hysteria 

My guess is we are numb to the flu...it's something we deal with every year and this is 'new' so panic sets in. 

 

 

 

Also it's no help that the covid talk is everywhere all the time to the point it is giving me anxiety and. My weather app has to have a pop-up about it... My fkn Capital one card sent me an email about it!!! 

 

 

[Picogoby]

21 minutes ago, RedCrow said:

Oh boy, someone’s offended that things are US centric on a US based forum...

 

Global influenza annual deaths: 290,000-650,000. (https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(seasonal))

Global COVID-19 deaths: 4,291 (https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---11-march-2020)

 

I do not want to fight about this, and I will not tolerate personal insults, so I will no longer be discussing with you. Have a pleasant evening. (Or morning, or afternoon. Sorry, I’m only capable of thinking about the USA!)

My sincere apologies if you have taken my comments as a personal insult, as that was not my intention.

my intention is to debate and highlight facts, whilst also keeping us all (wherever we may reside) safe and well!

[banasophia]

48 minutes ago, Sancho said:

There is no 100% effective flu vaccine either. Coronavirus is nothing new...the numbers at this point seem to have a high mortality rate however I’m skeptical because those numbers are based on confirmed cases. Symptoms for most are no worse than the common cold, I like many people won’t go to the doctor for a common cold. My uneducated guess is that there are many many unreported cases that passed in a few days. Those cases are not reported and therefore I don’t believe this has a 3% mortality rate...hell I could be wrong though and the cold I’ve been dealing with for the last couple weeks may take me out tonight 🤷‍♂️ I just really don’t understand the hysteria 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/11/fauci-recommends-against-large-crowds-coronavirus/

‘Fauci estimated that true mortality rate, given the number of cases that do not result in serious symptoms, as “somewhere around 1%, which means it is 10 times more lethal than the seasonal flu,” he said. “I think that’s something that people can get their arms around and understand.”‘